[email\u00a0protected]<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\nEn los primeros cinco meses del a\u00f1o la industria de la construcci\u00f3n registr\u00f3 un nivel de producci\u00f3n 2% inferior con relaci\u00f3n al mismo periodo de 2018, de acuerdo con la firma ForecastIM.<\/p>\n
\nEsta ca\u00edda tambi\u00e9n se present\u00f3 durante el arranque de sexenios anteriores, de acuerdo con la empresa de investigaci\u00f3n de mercados y an\u00e1lisis econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cCon el gobierno del presidente Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, la industria comenz\u00f3 d\u00e9bil. La edificaci\u00f3n del sector privado est\u00e1 resintiendo el momento pol\u00edtico\u201d, explic\u00f3 ForecastIM en su Indicador Adelantado de la Industria de la Construcci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n
\nA\u00f1adi\u00f3 que las obras de infraestructura se est\u00e1n sometiendo al cambio de tim\u00f3n en la pol\u00edtica hacendaria, una situaci\u00f3n que no es ajena al inicio de las \u00faltimas tres administraciones.<\/p>\n
\nLa expectativa es que hacia la segunda mitad del a\u00f1o comience a observarse una mayor actividad en la generaci\u00f3n de infraestructura, de acuerdo con el programa de inversiones del Presupuesto de Egresos de la Federaci\u00f3n para 2019.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nEn el primer a\u00f1o del gobierno de Ernesto Zedillo la construcci\u00f3n se contrajo 33% a tasa anual, debido a la crisis del \u201cerror de diciembre\u201d.<\/p>\n
\nNo obstante, hacia el segundo a\u00f1o de gobierno el sector se recuper\u00f3 r\u00e1pidamente, manteniendo un ciclo de crecimiento durante el resto del sexenio.<\/p>\n
\nCon Vicente Fox, el sector de la construcci\u00f3n retrocedi\u00f3 7.7% durante los primeros cinco meses de 2001, debido al ciclo pol\u00edtico y a la crisis de los \u201cpunto com\u201d.<\/p>\n
\nEl ciclo recesivo de la industria se mantuvo hasta el segundo a\u00f1o de gobierno, periodo en el cual retrocedi\u00f3 2%. Durante esos a\u00f1os, la inversi\u00f3n en obra privada fue el rubro de mayor afectaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n
\nEl sexenio de Felipe Calder\u00f3n fue la excepci\u00f3n, pues la construcci\u00f3n creci\u00f3 1% en los primeros cinco meses de su gobierno.<\/p>\n
\nEl tropez\u00f3n lleg\u00f3 entre el segundo y tercer trimestre de 2007, cuando la construcci\u00f3n en el sector privado se desaceler\u00f3 y hacia mitad del sexenio, tanto dicha industria como la econom\u00eda, entraron en crisis por las hipotecas basura en Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n
\nDurante el arranque del sexenio de Enrique Pe\u00f1a Nieto el sector retrocedi\u00f3 1.5% anual, donde la rama de vivienda lider\u00f3 la contracci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n
\nEl sexenio pasado se caracteriz\u00f3 por dos elementos importantes: la construcci\u00f3n de infraestructura estuvo en recesi\u00f3n durante los seis a\u00f1os de gobierno, y no se observaron factores de crisis en el contexto internacional que incidieran negativamente en el ciclo econ\u00f3mico del pa\u00eds, destac\u00f3 ForecastIM.<\/p>\n
\nEn t\u00e9rminos generales, el escenario negativo para la construcci\u00f3n prevalecer\u00e1 durante el segundo trimestre de 2019, con una alta probabilidad de permanecer as\u00ed hasta el periodo julio-septiembre.<\/p>\n
\nLa actividad constructiva se encuentra deprimida, elemento que genera prudencia en el sector y transmite a la actividad burs\u00e1til.<\/p>\n
\nLa confianza empresarial progresa positivamente junto con un mercado que parece relajar las restricciones de financiamiento con tasas de inter\u00e9s estables.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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