[email\u00a0protected]<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\nGrupo Financiero CitiBanamex revis\u00f3 a la baja su pron\u00f3stico de crecimiento del PIB de M\u00e9xico para 2019, por cuarta vez desde noviembre del a\u00f1o pasado, al ajustarlo de 1.2% a 0.9%. Asimismo, modific\u00f3 el crecimiento del PIB estimado para 2020 a 1.5% desde 1.7%.<\/p>\n
\nEl grupo tambi\u00e9n dio a conocer los resultados m\u00e1s recientes de su encuesta de expectativas realizada entre las principales instituciones financieras del pa\u00eds, en el que tambi\u00e9n el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico promedio previsto para 2019 baj\u00f3 de 1.3% a 1.2%. En tanto, para 2020 la mediana de las expectativas de crecimiento del PIB tambi\u00e9n disminuy\u00f3 y ahora se ubica en 1.7%, desde el nivel de 1.8% de hace dos semanas.<\/p>\n
\nAhora CitiBanamex ve un tipo de cambio m\u00e1s vol\u00e1til que cerrar\u00eda 2019 y 2020 en 19.8 y 20.3 pesos por d\u00f3lar, respectivamente, contra 19.6 y 19.9 pesos por d\u00f3lar de su estimaci\u00f3n previa. El grupo sigue esperando una inflaci\u00f3n de 3.8% y la tasa de referencia en 7.75% al fin de 2019.<\/p>\n
\nDesde la \u00faltima revisi\u00f3n a su marco macroecon\u00f3mico el 15 de mayo pasado, el grupo financiero advierte que M\u00e9xico se ha visto afectado por una serie de noticias negativas, incluyendo las amenazas arancelarias del presidente estadounidense Donald Trump, as\u00ed como las acciones crediticias negativas por parte de las agencias Fitch y Moody\u2019s al soberano y a otras entidades mexicanas.<\/p>\n
\nAsimismo, los flujos de datos siguen mostrando un sesgo preocupante a la baja: el gasto p\u00fablico durante enero-abril fue 6% menor al programado en el presupuesto (un rezago de alrededor de 110 mil millones de pesos), en buena medida por cifras bajas de inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica; adem\u00e1s, contin\u00faa la desaceleraci\u00f3n en la creaci\u00f3n de empleos formales, con los registros en el IMSS creciendo a una tasa anual de 2.4% en mayo, la m\u00e1s baja desde marzo de 2010.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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