[email\u00a0protected]<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\nLa calificadora HR Ratings advirti\u00f3 que la renuncia de Carlos Urz\u00faa como secretario de Hacienda es una noticia negativa para las perspectivas de crecimiento del pa\u00eds, ya que se suma al nivel de incertidumbre que actualmente prevalece en los mercados financieros.<\/p>\n
\nEn un comentario sobre los cambios en la dependencia, HR Ratings dijo que la decisi\u00f3n del exfuncionario y su justificaci\u00f3n refleja una aparente divisi\u00f3n dentro de la administraci\u00f3n del presidente L\u00f3pez Obrador en cuanto a la direcci\u00f3n de la pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica, incluyendo las decisiones de gasto.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cSin duda, el nuevo secretario Arturo Herrera se caracteriza por tener un alto nivel de profesionalismo. Pero est\u00e1 por verse si prevalecer\u00e1n las mismas tensiones dentro de la secretar\u00eda y si habr\u00e1 m\u00e1s salidas de personas claves\u201d, coment\u00f3.<\/p>\n
\nPara la agencia existen por lo menos tres \u00e1reas de preocupaci\u00f3n ante los cambios en la secretar\u00eda, que son el efecto sobre el tipo de cambio, la eficiencia en el gasto, y los posibles cambios en el esquema fiscal.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cEn el corto plazo podremos observar hasta qu\u00e9 punto el efecto negativo sobre el tipo de cambio ser\u00e1 transitorio. Esto es especialmente relevante a nivel de finanzas p\u00fablicas, entre otras cosas, por el nivel de endeudamiento en moneda extranjera, puesto que la depreciaci\u00f3n del peso afecta tanto el saldo en pesos de la deuda como el gasto por intereses sobre ella, lo cual a su vez eleva el d\u00e9ficit\u201d, explic\u00f3.<\/p>\n
\nResalt\u00f3 que este efecto se traduce en una mayor necesidad de lograr un super\u00e1vit primario suficientemente grande para mantener en l\u00ednea el d\u00e9ficit financiero.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cEstimamos que por una cada 25 centavos al alza en la cotizaci\u00f3n del peso-d\u00f3lar, el saldo de la deuda se incrementa en 48 mil millones de pesos, equivalente a un alza en el d\u00e9ficit por 0.20% del PIB\u201d, a\u00f1adi\u00f3<\/p>\n
\nRecalc\u00f3 que otro elemento de preocupaci\u00f3n es el impacto que puede llegar a tener las decisiones de pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica realizadas sin suficiente sustento o evidencia.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cEntre los objetivos de la pol\u00edtica fiscal se encuentra el incentivar un mayor crecimiento econ\u00f3mico, pero tambi\u00e9n minimizar el impacto negativo de reasignaciones en recursos y las distorsiones que dichas pol\u00edticas puedan ocasionar. Esto implica que se deben cuidar los posibles efectos negativos del financiamiento del gasto\u201d, resalt\u00f3.<\/p>\n
\nHR Ratings afirm\u00f3 que estar\u00e1 muy atento a posibles cambios en el esquema fiscal y sus posibles consecuencias para la deuda p\u00fablica, el d\u00e9ficit y el costo financiero.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cLos comentarios del exsecretario Urz\u00faa relativos a la toma de decisiones con consideraciones no econ\u00f3micas son preocupantes. HR Ratings estar\u00e1 atento a la publicaci\u00f3n del plan de negocios de Pemex, el cual se espera de manera inminente. De igual importancia ser\u00e1 la publicaci\u00f3n en septiembre de los Criterios de la Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f3mica\u201d, dijo.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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