[email\u00a0protected]<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\nLa econom\u00eda mexicana da se\u00f1ales que confirman la desaceleraci\u00f3n que ha reportado desde mediados del a\u00f1o pasado, seg\u00fan los resultados m\u00e1s recientes del Sistema de Indicadores C\u00edclicos del Inegi.<\/p>\n
\nDicho sistema se conforma de dos indicadores compuestos que se denominan coincidente y adelantado. El indicador coincidente refleja el estado general de la econom\u00eda, mientras que el adelantado busca se\u00f1alar anticipadamente los puntos de cambio del indicador coincidente, con base en la informaci\u00f3n con la que se dispone de sus componentes a una fecha determinada.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
\nEn febrero pasado el indicador coincidente se localiz\u00f3 por debajo de su tendencia de largo plazo (100 unidades) al registrar un valor de 99.3 puntos, o 0.10 unidades inferior respecto al mes anterior, con lo que acumula once meses consecutivos a la baja.<\/p>\n
\nPor el contrario, el indicador adelantado se situ\u00f3 en marzo de 2019 por arriba de su tendencia de largo plazo, al observar un valor de 100.2 puntos y un incremento de 0.05 puntos con respecto a febrero, en su segundo mes al alza, luego de cuatro meses seguidos de retrocesos.<\/p>\n
\nCon la nueva informaci\u00f3n, explica el Inegi, el indicador coincidente present\u00f3 un comportamiento similar, aunque con una disminuci\u00f3n ligeramente menor a la difundida el mes previo, mientras que el adelantado modific\u00f3 la trayectoria descendente observada en los \u00faltimos meses.<\/p>\n
\nEl enfoque de \u201cCiclo de crecimiento\u201d identifica las desviaciones de la econom\u00eda respecto a su tendencia de largo plazo. Por tanto, el componente c\u00edclico de las variables que conforman cada indicador compuesto se calcula como la desviaci\u00f3n de su respectiva tendencia de largo plazo.<\/p>\n
\nEl indicador coincidente ha disminuido desde mayo de 2018, ubic\u00e1ndose por debajo de su tendencia de largo plazo (100 puntos) desde agosto del a\u00f1o pasado, con lo que llevar\u00eda siete meses disminuyendo y ampliando la brecha negativa con respecto a su tendencia de largo plazo, confirmando el menor dinamismo econ\u00f3mico del pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n
\nEl comportamiento del indicador coincidente en febrero pasado fue resultado de la evoluci\u00f3n de los componentes c\u00edclicos que lo integran. Cinco de sus seis componentes reportan retrocesos desde agosto del a\u00f1o pasado, entre los que destacan el indicador global de actividad econ\u00f3mica y los asegurados trabajadores permanentes en el IMSS, que desde marzo de 2018 reportan una tendencia a la baja.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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