[email\u00a0protected]<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\nDe ejecutarse el plan de negocios de Petr\u00f3leos Mexicanos (Pemex), presentado hace unas semanas por el gobierno del presidente Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, se debilitar\u00e1 el perfil crediticio de la empresa petrolera, advirti\u00f3 la agencia Fitch Ratings.<\/p>\n
\nEn un an\u00e1lisis sobre la estrategia de negocios de la firma, resalt\u00f3 que su plan de inversi\u00f3n de capital a largo plazo tendr\u00eda un efecto negativo sobre sus reservas, lo que llevar\u00eda a Pemex a un apalancamiento m\u00e1s elevado de lo esperado y a una p\u00e9rdida de efectivo.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cLa perspectiva de calificaci\u00f3n de Pemex podr\u00eda estabilizarse con ahorros en costos de materiales y reducciones de impuestos que le permitan a la compa\u00f1\u00eda tener un flujo de efectivo de neutral a positivo durante el ciclo, mientras invierte suficiente gasto de capital en aguas someras, para reemplazar suficientemente 100% de las reservas y estabilizar la producci\u00f3n de manera rentable\u201d, dijo.<\/p>\n
\nResalt\u00f3 que ninguno de dichos factores positivos se ve factible en la estrategia de negocios.<\/p>\n
\nEn opini\u00f3n de Fitch, el objetivo de producci\u00f3n anual de la compa\u00f1\u00eda de 2.7 millones de barriles diarios para 2024 es agresivo, dado los niveles de gasto de capital relativamente bajos en comparaci\u00f3n con los costos de inversi\u00f3n de hallazgos y desarrollo hist\u00f3ricos, y los desaf\u00edos de ejecuci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cEstimamos que el costo promedio hist\u00f3rico por barril ha sido de aproximadamente 18 d\u00f3lares, mientras que el plan implica costos de un solo d\u00edgito para que sea proporcional a los objetivos de producci\u00f3n\u201d, expuso la agencia.<\/p>\n
\nAgreg\u00f3 que si bien la producci\u00f3n de Pemex es relativamente estable y est\u00e1 en l\u00ednea con sus expectativas hasta el momento en 2019, se mantiene por debajo del nivel alcanzado en 2018.<\/p>\n
\nExplic\u00f3 que el pron\u00f3stico del nivel de producci\u00f3n de crudo de la compa\u00f1\u00eda para 2019, de 1.7 millones de barriles diarios, dar\u00e1 como resultado una disminuci\u00f3n de m\u00e1s de 6% en cifras anuales, m\u00e1s o menos en l\u00ednea con la trayectoria hist\u00f3rica y la expectativa de una disminuci\u00f3n de 5% por a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cEstimamos que la producci\u00f3n de Pemex probablemente continuar\u00e1 disminuyendo en aproximadamente 5% por a\u00f1o en el corto a mediano plazos, ya que el gasto de capital de exploraci\u00f3n y producci\u00f3n se mantiene en l\u00ednea con el promedio de los \u00faltimos tres a\u00f1os\u201d, destac\u00f3.<\/p>\n
\nFitch Ratings coment\u00f3 que los niveles de producci\u00f3n proyectados hasta 2023 en el plan de negocios de Pemex no son proporcionales a las adiciones de reservas probadas promedio impl\u00edcitas e hist\u00f3ricas de la empresa.<\/p>\n
\nEn ese sentido, el desajuste podr\u00eda llevar a una disminuci\u00f3n material en la vida \u00fatil de la reserva a menos de tres a\u00f1os para 2024, de aproximadamente 7.2 a\u00f1os en la actualidad, si se alcanzan los objetivos de producci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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