[email\u00a0protected]<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\nEl plan de negocios de Petr\u00f3leos Mexicanos (Pemex) puede generar un aumento en la vulnerabilidad de las cuentas externas del pa\u00eds, advirti\u00f3 el Instituto de Finanzas Internacionales (IIF, por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s).<\/p>\n
\nEn un nuevo reporte, explic\u00f3 las implicaciones externas que puede tener el plan de Pemex, ya que su desempe\u00f1o afecta la cuenta corriente de M\u00e9xico, a trav\u00e9s de las importaciones de gasolina y exportaciones de petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n
\nDe acuerdo con el informe Pemex y la cuenta corriente de M\u00e9xico, a cargo del equipo del jefe de Investigaci\u00f3n para Am\u00e9rica Latina, Mart\u00edn Castellano, el IIF afirm\u00f3 que las implicaciones macroecon\u00f3micas de Pemex son relevantes.<\/p>\n
\nExplic\u00f3 que el plan prev\u00e9 aumentos significativos en la capacidad de refinaci\u00f3n, que esencialmente convierte casi todos los incrementos de producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo crudo en producci\u00f3n adicional de gasolina.<\/p>\n
\nSi la producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo aumenta, de acuerdo con lo planeado, el d\u00e9ficit en la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos se reducir\u00e1 notablemente, estim\u00f3.<\/p>\n
\nSin embargo, en un escenario en el que la producci\u00f3n incrementa lentamente, pero a\u00fan en l\u00ednea con los casos anteriores, el d\u00e9ficit de la cuenta corriente puede ampliarse.<\/p>\n
\nHizo ver que bajo estos supuestos el aumento en la producci\u00f3n de gasolina no ser\u00e1 lo suficientemente grande como para evitar que las importaciones sigan creciendo.<\/p>\n
\nSuponiendo un precio del petr\u00f3leo de 65 d\u00f3lares por barril a trav\u00e9s del horizonte de pron\u00f3stico, el d\u00e9ficit de la cuenta corriente se reducir\u00e1 aproximadamente a la mitad, principalmente debido a las fuertes importaciones de gasolina.<\/p>\n
\nLa semana pasada, el IIF se\u00f1al\u00f3 en un reporte que el plan propuesto para devolver Pemex a la rentabilidad tiene un costo fiscal en el corto plazo, pero puede generar espacio fiscal en el mediano plazo.<\/p>\n
\nEvoluci\u00f3n cuenta corriente. <\/strong>En el nuevo informe analiz\u00f3 las implicaciones del plan de negocios de Pemex sobre las cuentas externas de M\u00e9xico, las cuales se reflejar\u00e1n en la balanza de pagos.<\/p>\n\nIndic\u00f3 que el d\u00e9ficit de cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos de M\u00e9xico se ha mantenido entre 1% y 2% del PIB durante a\u00f1os, pero su composici\u00f3n cambi\u00f3 sustancialmente debido al bajo rendimiento de Pemex, ponder\u00f3.<\/p>\n
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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