\n
\nEl Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) advirti\u00f3 ayer que la guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China pone en peligro la recuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica mundial prevista para la segunda mitad de 2019.<\/p>\n
\nGita Gopinath, economista jefe del FMI, refut\u00f3 directamente la afirmaci\u00f3n del presidente estadounidense Donald Trump de que los aranceles son pagados por China y dan una ganancia inesperada al Tesoro de EU, y de que su postura agresiva ayudar\u00e1 a reducir el d\u00e9ficit comercial con el gigante asi\u00e1tico.<\/p>\n
\nEn una publicaci\u00f3n de blog, Gopinath alert\u00f3 que el da\u00f1o econ\u00f3mico ser\u00e1 peor si Trump cumple con su amenaza de imponer aranceles elevados a todos los bienes importados de China, eso \u201crestar\u00e1 un tercio de un punto porcentual del PIB global en el corto plazo\u201d.<\/p>\n
\nEn abril, el FMI redujo su pron\u00f3stico de crecimiento global para 2019 a 3.3%, observando una desaceleraci\u00f3n que afecta a 70% de la econom\u00eda mundial. Sin embargo, optimista de que ambos pa\u00edses alcanzaran un acuerdo, esperaba un repunte en la segunda mitad del a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n
\nLas fricciones regresaron cuando Trump acus\u00f3 a Beijing de dar marcha atr\u00e1s en los compromisos contra\u00eddos durante el a\u00f1o de negociaciones y, en represalia, duplic\u00f3 los aranceles a importaciones chinas por 200 mil millones de d\u00f3lares, elev\u00e1ndolos a 25%.<\/p>\n
\nChina no se qued\u00f3 atr\u00e1s y a partir del 1 de junio prev\u00e9 aumentar los aranceles a bienes estadounidenses por 60 mil millones de d\u00f3lares.<\/p>\n
\nAdem\u00e1s, Trump planea imponer aranceles adicionales sobre unos 300 mil millones de d\u00f3lares en importaciones del gigante asi\u00e1tico. Si su amenaza se materializara, todas las importaciones de China (m\u00e1s de 539 mil millones de d\u00f3lares en 2018) se ver\u00edan afectadas.<\/p>\n
\nLa directora gerente del FMI, Christine Lagarde, y otros funcionarios del fondo han expresado su preocupaci\u00f3n por la guerra comercial.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cLa escalada m\u00e1s reciente podr\u00eda mermar significativamente la confianza de los negocios y los mercados financieros, interrumpir las cadenas de suministro globales y amenazar la proyectada recuperaci\u00f3n del crecimiento mundial en 2019. Este tipo de escenario es una de las razones por las que nos referimos a 2019 como un a\u00f1o delicado para la econom\u00eda\u201d, indic\u00f3 en el blog<\/p>\n
\nTrump dice que su agresiva estrategia arancelaria busca reducir el desequilibrio comercial con China, que totaliz\u00f3 379 mil millones en 2018.<\/p>\n
\nGopinath se\u00f1al\u00f3 que \u201cel d\u00e9ficit comercial bilateral se mantiene incambiado\u201d.<\/p>\n
\nLos vulnerables. Los economistas del FMI tambi\u00e9n creen que las tensiones comerciales chino-estadounidenses est\u00e1n comenzando a afectar negativamente a los consumidores, \u201cperjudicando a los hogares de bajos ingresos de manera desproporcionada\u201d, as\u00ed como a muchos productores.<\/p>\n
\nLa advertencia del FMI se hace eco de numerosos pedidos de firmas estadounidenses instando a Trump a encontrar una soluci\u00f3n con Beijing.<\/p>\n
\nLos principales fabricantes de calzado y minoristas han dicho que los nuevos aranceles ser\u00edan \u201ccatastr\u00f3ficos\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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