{"id":957,"date":"2019-06-07T18:48:16","date_gmt":"2019-06-07T18:48:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/selectednews.info\/mx\/mexico-probablemente-estara-en-recesion-dice-bank-of-america\/"},"modified":"2019-06-07T18:48:17","modified_gmt":"2019-06-07T18:48:17","slug":"mexico-probablemente-estara-en-recesion-dice-bank-of-america","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/selectednews.info\/mx\/mexico-probablemente-estara-en-recesion-dice-bank-of-america\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cM\u00e9xico probablemente estar\u00e1 en recesi\u00f3n\u201d, dice Bank Of America"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Ante un escenario de menor <strong>inversi\u00f3n<\/strong>, as\u00ed como la <strong>incertidumbre <\/strong>sobre futuro de su relaci\u00f3n comercial con <strong>Estados<\/strong> <strong>Unidos<\/strong>, la econom\u00eda mexicana enfrentar\u00e1 menor <strong>crecimiento econ\u00f3mico <\/strong>con lo que probablemente estar\u00e1 en recesi\u00f3n, dijo <strong>Bank Of America <\/strong>Merrill Lynch Global Research.<\/p>\n<p>En el documento \u201cM\u00e9xico en la l\u00ednea de fuego\u201d, la firma explic\u00f3 que el crecimiento del <strong>PIB <\/strong>en M\u00e9xico es incluso m\u00e1s bajo de sus estimados previos, tanto por la mayor incertidumbre que afecta el crecimiento en <strong>Estados Unidos <\/strong>como en <strong>M\u00e9xico,\u00a0<\/strong>as\u00ed como la aplicaci\u00f3n de aranceles por parte de <b>EU<\/b>. Ante el entorno, redujo su expectativa de crecimiento del PIB para M\u00e9xico a 0.7% de 1.0% para 2019 y 1.2% desde 1.5% para 2020.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUna menor inversi\u00f3n debido a una mayor incertidumbre y el retraso en la ratificaci\u00f3n del <strong>T-MEC<\/strong> tiene un doble efecto: reduce el gasto agregado a corto plazo, pero tambi\u00e9n reduce el crecimiento potencial. Los <strong>aranceles <\/strong>m\u00e1s altos y la mayor incertidumbre tambi\u00e9n afectar\u00e1n a las exportaciones. En nuestra nueva l\u00ednea de base, el peso se depreciar\u00eda para absorber parte del golpe, pero las exportaciones inevitables caer\u00edan, arrastrando el <strong>PIB<\/strong>. Con solo un crecimiento del 0.7% en 2019, la probabilidad de que <strong>M\u00e9xico <\/strong>obtenga dos trimestres consecutivos de crecimiento negativo es alta por lo que <strong>M\u00e9xico <\/strong>probablemente estar\u00eda en una recesi\u00f3n t\u00e9cnica\u201d, dijo Bank of America.<\/p>\n<p>En su documento, resalt\u00f3 que la amenaza arancelaria est\u00e1 infravalorada y los <strong>inversionistas <\/strong>parecen demasiado complacientes con las posibilidades de que los <strong>aranceles <\/strong>a productos mexicanos no aumenten por parte del gobierno de <strong>Estados Unidos<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Bank of America agreg\u00f3 que se espera por parte del <strong>Banco de M\u00e9xico<\/strong> que se mantenga en suspenso con su tasa de referencia en 8.25%, dado el aumento en la prima de riesgo y para evitar que un peso mucho m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil anule las expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEsperamos que la paridad peso-d\u00f3lar se debilite a 20.8 pesos para fin de a\u00f1o y que la curva aumente\u201d, detall\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>vcr<br \/>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eluniversal.com.mx\/cartera\/economia\/mexico-probablemente-estara-en-recesion-dice-bank-america\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Ante un escenario de menor inversi\u00f3n, as\u00ed como la incertidumbre sobre futuro de su relaci\u00f3n comercial con Estados Unidos, la econom\u00eda mexicana enfrentar\u00e1 menor crecimiento econ\u00f3mico con lo que probablemente estar\u00e1 en recesi\u00f3n, dijo Bank Of America Merrill Lynch Global Research. En el documento \u201cM\u00e9xico en la l\u00ednea de fuego\u201d, la firma explic\u00f3 que [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":958,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticias-de-negocios"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u201cM\u00e9xico probablemente estar\u00e1 en recesi\u00f3n\u201d, dice Bank Of America - Selected News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/selectednews.info\/mx\/mexico-probablemente-estara-en-recesion-dice-bank-of-america\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_MX\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201cM\u00e9xico probablemente estar\u00e1 en recesi\u00f3n\u201d, dice Bank Of America - Selected News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[ad_1] Ante un escenario de menor inversi\u00f3n, as\u00ed como la incertidumbre sobre futuro de su relaci\u00f3n comercial con Estados Unidos, la econom\u00eda mexicana enfrentar\u00e1 menor crecimiento econ\u00f3mico con lo que probablemente estar\u00e1 en recesi\u00f3n, dijo Bank Of America Merrill Lynch Global Research. 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