Caixin Markit manufacturing PMI for July 2019

China’s manufacturing activity contracted in July, according to results of a private survey released on Thursday.

The Caixin/Markit factory Purchasing Managers’ Index was 49.9 in July — slightly better than expected, but still in contractionary territory.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the indicator to come in at 49.6. The reading for June was 49.4.

PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while those below that signal contraction.

Subindices for new orders and production both returned to expansionary territory, while the gauge for new export orders rose slightly even though it was still in contractionary territory, wrote Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a subsidiary of Caixin.

In particular, the measure for future output rose in July, signalling that confidence rose among businesses, he added.

“China’s manufacturing economy showed signs of recovery in July,” said Zhong. “Business confidence rebounded, reflecting the strong resilience in the economy. Policies such as tax and fee reductions designed to underpin the economy had an effect,” he said.

On Wednesday, data from the Chinese statistics bureau showed official manufacturing PMI was in contraction for three straight months, coming in at 49.6 for the month of July.

The official PMI survey typically polls a large proportion of big businesses and state-owned enterprises. The Caixin indicator, features a bigger mix of small- and medium-sized firms.

The PMI is a survey of businesses about the operating environment. Such data offer a first glimpse into what’s happening in an economy, as they are usually among the first major economic indicators released each month.

For China, the PMI is among economic indicators that investors globally watch closely for signs of trouble amid domestic headwinds and the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute.